July 8, 2022
Wellspring Investment Outlook - 3Q'22
We see an increased risk of recession over the next 12 months due to geopolitical conflict, persistently high inflation, and hawkish monetary policy intended to curb inflation at the expense of growth and employment. If/when a recession occurs, we'd expect it to be mild and relatively short, given the consumer's relative health and the limited amount of excesses in key economic end markets. Also, since this has been one of the most anticipated and debated recessions in recent memory, risk assets have already been significantly repriced. Therefore, we believe meaningful additional downside is likely limited.
Click "Market Outlook" to download our Q3 2022 investment outlook.